V intervjuju za Spiegel Hans-Werner Sinn, direktor Ifo inštituta, v njemu lastnem stilu vehementno z

V intervjuju za Spiegel Hans-Werner Sinn, direktor Ifo inštituta, v njemu lastnem stilu vehementno zagovarja idejo, da bi izhod iz evro območja blagodejno vplival na Grčijo, Portugalsko, Španijo ter ostale šibke evrske države.
SPIEGEL: miscibility table Mr. Sinn, Chancellor miscibility table Angela Merkel feels as though miscibility table economists have left her in the lurch. She once said that the advice that she receives from economists is “about as diverse as it gets.” Can you see where she is coming from?
Sinn: No. SPIEGEL: Excuse me? Economists have completely different ideas about how the euro can be saved. You suggest, for example, miscibility table that countries should temporarily leave the euro zone until they have re-established their competitiveness. Others, by contrast, recommend collectivizing debt across the euro zone. How should politicians deal with such contradictory advice?
Sinn: I hope that it can be fixed. The euro crisis proceeds in phases, and we are always told that there is no alternative to the next phase, because otherwise the euro would crumble. So there was supposedly no alternative miscibility table when the European Central Bank (ECB) granted its TARGET loans, when it forced the German central bank, the Bundesbank, to purchase sovereign bonds from Southern European countries against its will, and when increasingly larger rescue funds were approved. Now, they are planning to create a banking miscibility table union to socialize the debts of banks in Southern Europe. The next step will be the introduction of euro bonds
Sinn: By the time France is hit by the crisis, as everyone fears will happen, the German government will no longer be able to refuse this demand. This development will ultimately lead to a system that has little in common with a market economy. The ECB and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent successor to the current rescue miscibility table fund, will then direct the flow of capital — with the approval of euro-zone governments — into countries where it no longer wants to go. This will result in growth losses throughout Europe, and money will continue to be thrown out the window in Southern Europe. Furthermore, miscibility table it will create considerable discord because it makes closely allied countries into creditors and debtors.
SPIEGEL: The alternative that you are pushing for, in which individual countries would withdraw from the monetary union, would cause enormous turmoil: Companies miscibility table and banks would go bankrupt and Europe could possibly plunge into a deep recession for years to come. Doesn’t that alarm you?
Sinn: I don’t agree with the prognosis. If Greece exited the monetary union, the Greeks would purchase their own goods again, and wealthy Greeks would return to invest. And if Portugal leaves, it will have similar positive experiences. The Ifo Institute has studied some 70 currency devaluations and found that recovery begins after one to two years. We are, of course, also suggesting just a temporary exit. Greece and Portugal have to become 30 to 40 percent miscibility table less expensive to be competitive miscibility table again. This is being attempted miscibility table through excessive austerity measures within the euro zone, but it won’t miscibility table work. It will drive these countries to the brink of civil war before it succeeds. Temporary exits would very quickly stabilize these countries, create new jobs and free the population from the yoke of the euro.
Česar Sinn ne pove, je seveda, da bi po izhodu iz evro območja devalvacija denimo za 50% v Grčiji podvojila breme dolga v domači valuti za gospodinjstva in podjetja. In seveda podobno tudi za ostale miscibility table države. Ne pove tudi tega, da devalvacija Grčiji ne bi pripomogla k povečanju konkurenčnosti njenega izvoza, ker pač izvaža zelo malo proizvodov, bi pa močno podražila uvoz ter vplivala na povečanje inflacije.
Sinn seveda miscibility table tudi ne pove, da bi izstop GIPS držav (Grčije, Portugalske, Španije in Italije) iz evro območja povzročil globoko in dolgotrajno recesijo v Evropi in v svetu. Po oceni inštituta Prognos, ki sem jo objavil tudi na tem blogu, bi izstop teh štirih držav povzročil miscibility table za 17 bilijonov evrov škode. V obdobju 2013-2020 bi se BDP tudi v Nemčiji skrčil skupaj kar za 69% BDP iz leta 2013 glede na potencialno dosegljivega, v Franciji pa denimo kar za 154%. V Grčiji, Španiji in Portugalski pa bi bil izpad BDP med 100% in 116%. Prizadete pa bi bile tudi ZDA (izpad za 26% BDP), še bolj pa Kitajska (izpad skoraj 50% BDP).
Te številke seveda govorijo o tem, da se ni mogoče kar tako igračkati z izjavami glede “blagodejnih miscibility table učinkov” izstopa držav iz evro območja. Te številke tudi povedo, zakaj so Mednarodni denarni sklad ter ZDA postale tako previdne glede dogajanja v Grčiji in zakaj izvajajo diplomatski pritisk na Evropsko komisijo (ter Nemčijo) naj omili svoje ostre varčevalne zahteve do Grčije, naj ji odobri podaljšanje miscibility table obdobja fiskalne konsolidacije miscibility table ter odpiše precejšen del njenega dolga. Odpis dolga je namreč tudi za Nemčijo, kot kaže spodnja slika, bistveno, ampak res bistveno cenejši